One Week To Ironman Steelhead 70.3

The big event of the year is a week away.  Although I haven’t hit my training goals exactly, I have come close:

The Swim = 1.2 Miles
Training hours compared to last year:  Swim Hours: +18%   Swim Distance:  +28%

Last year my goal was 35 minutes, however I came in around 39:41, thus 4 minutes off.  This year my goal is 33 minutes.   Last week I had an Olympic triathlon (Tri Del Sol), and that swim went really well for me and helped boost my confidence that I could hit my 33 minute goal.  Of course the key will be water conditions.  Last year the water was smooth as glass and relatively warm.  As of today, the water temps are 58 degrees.  The water did break 70 degrees this summer but the currents have shifted bringing colder waters from the bottom to the top.  Let’s hope the currents switch back to warm up.

Transition 1
Last year T1 took me 4 minutes.  I didn’t rush, but also didn’t take my time.  There is a beach run so feet will need to be rinsed of beach sand before mounting.  Last year I had my shoes clipped in and jumped on my bike.  I need to check the Athlete Guide to make sure that is still legal.  Apparently the rule against clipped shoes has been in place for awhile, but rarely enforced.  My goal for T1 is 3 minutes.

Bike: 56 Miles
Training hours compared to last year:  Bike Hours: –13%   Bike Distance:  +1.5%

The bike is my strength so my training hours are down, although my distance is still up.  There will be very little room for improvements on my time.  Last year I averaged 20.4MPH, which gave me a time of 2:44.  This year my goal is 21.7MPH, which will give me a time of 2:35.  This assume race conditions are similar.

The issue last year was nutrition.  I became very hungry on the bike.  This year I will be prepared for that with Cliff bars.  I will still carry my own nutrition via a bottle between the arms (Speedfill A2), an aerobottle on down tube and two smaller bottles behind the seat (used to refill A2).  I’ll also have gel and salt tabs on the ride.  My Garmin will be set to beep every 15 minutes to remind me to drink and every 30 minutes to 45 minutes to take a salt tab. There is still a chance I may strip away one water bottle to reduce weight.  It will depend on projected temps race day.

Transition 2
Transition did take just over 4 minutes last year so I’ll try to drop that by 30 seconds if I not more.  I don’t wear a Fuel Belt and all my gels will be on my race belt, so no real reason to take a long time in T2.

Run = 13.1 Miles
Training hours compared to last year:  Run Hours: +27%  Run Distance: +46%

Running is my weak leak, thus the reason you see such big increases in my training times. Last year my average pace was 10:44, resulting in a run time of 2:20.  Dropping my pace time was the fact I walked every aid station.  This year I’m hoping to walk every other aid station.  The key will be not to push too hard the first few miles.   My goal is a 9:45 pace, which will give me a time of 2:08.

Total race time is projected at 5:22, which would be 32 minutes faster than last year.  It does seem very aggressive goal, but talking with other racers, many have seen huge improvements after completing the first HIM.

Let’s look at some nerdy training data.

During 2012, my average training stress score was 271.7, while in 2013 it is 347.5.  The TSS score is basically a measurement of workload.  The higher the number, the more stress you put on your body during training.  Thus this number needs to be managed to prevent over-training.

Below is my Performance Management Chart (PMC) showing my entire training year, as well as 2012.  The picture is tough to read so I’ll point out the highlights from it.

The first box on the left shows the date of 8/12/12.  This is one week before Steelhead.  At that point, I had a Training Stress Balance (TSB) of –1.0, an Acute Training Load (ATL) of 44.9 and a Chronic Training Load (CTL) of 49.4.  Quickly, TSB is the balance between fatigue and freshness.  A TSB of zero means you perfectly balanced.  A positive TSB means you are very fresh (recovered).  Each athlete has to determine their own balance.  ATL and CTL are the same thing, only difference is duration.  ATL measures training stress the past few weeks while CTL measures training stress over the past few months.

Now my current numbers are much higher.  As of 7/28/13 (one week before Steelhead), my TSB is –8.8, my ATL is 67.9 and my CTL is 68.7.  Just three days ago I had a –25 TSB, which indicates a very high training day.  Thus, I’ve tapered it down to –8.8 as I approach race day.  This number will drop a few times as I have harder workouts, but as I approach Sunday, it should be closer to zero.  Last year, my TSB on race day was +13.7.  I won’t let it get that high this year.  Ideally closer to zero.