Iceman: The Day Has Arrived

Iceman Cometh is this Saturday.  My training is complete.  There is nothing more I can do, other than maybe an easy ride tomorrow and Friday to keep the legs warm.  I'm not sure what to expect Saturday.  After some hard training rides I felt great.  After others, I felt discouraged.  I look at my Performance Management Chart and get even more discouraged.  Ever since school started (college professor) my CTL has dropped like a brick.  I really don't know what to expect on Saturday.

My ultimate goal is to finally break the 2-hour mark.  However, I need to factor in the longer course (+2 miles) and new re-routes that may be slower or faster, not sure.  This month, I've logged 300 miles and 20 hours on the bike.  This is only slightly higher than last year and still well below what my goal was.

I've reviewed last years race file and examined the my HR and speed data during certain sections of the trail.  This is the best method of pacing myself without a power meter.  That's definitely one benefit of my triathlon bike (powermeter).  So much easier to pace myself.  My pacing plans for Iceman will have to remain fluid.  I know the majority of the trail well (rode multiple times this year) so I'll be able to monitor my pace easier.  However as we approach the logging re-routes I'll need to make sure I stay within my pace and not blow a gasket.

I look at the race in two section: Pre-Williamsburg road and Post-Williamsburg road.  Prior to Williamsburg much of the race is about positioning.  Williamsburg road is about 16 miles into the race (just over half-way).  This is considered the easier part of the course.  After Williamsburg, the bigger hills become a factor. Based on this, below is a breakdown of my pace from last years race:

5-miles: 17.8(avg speed)/157(avg.BPM).  HR appears high given the avg.speed and elevation profile.
10-miles: 16.7/157
Williamsburg: 14.2/155  Time: 1:15
25-miles: 14.25/154  With the lower HR, did I dial things back a bit?
Finish: 13.8/154
IF of .981.  With a higher FTP, I should be faster if I achieve .981 IF again.  During a triathlon, this is something I can watch during the bike (via Garmin 910xt), however with MTB, the only three screens I'll have showing: avg.speed, avg.HR and time.

As for the weather; Right now it's calling for 50% rain, but that could change a dozen times before Saturday. I also don't really care what the weather turns out to be: cold, wet, snow, ice, heat...don't care.  I'll be prepared for anything.